Retirement Savings Estimator
Move the sliders to see a rough estimate of the savings that could support your retirement spending. It's a starting point for a conversation, not a plan.
Estimated Retirement Savings
$3,300,000
Hypothetical illustration. Not investment advice and not a recommendation.
- A likelihood, not a guarantee. This amount lasted to age 92 in about 3 out of 4 simulated markets. In the rest, it ran out sooner.
- Social Security and pensions aren't counted. The estimate assumes your savings cover all of the spending you enter. If Social Security, a pension, or other income will cover part of it, you'd likely need less. Enter only the gap those sources won't cover for a closer number.
- Enter spending after taxes. The analysis already set aside estimated federal and North Carolina income taxes on withdrawals, so enter what you expect to spend, not what you'd need to withdraw before tax.
Assumptions
- Portfolio: a hypothetical balanced mix of about 60% stocks and 40% bonds. Real portfolios with that mix vary widely, so the return and volatility below are what drive the estimate.
- Expected return: 5.99% per year on average, before inflation.
- Volatility: returns vary around that average with a standard deviation of 11.74%, so some years are much better or worse.
- Inflation: 2.5% per year. Spending rises each year with inflation.
- How long the money lasts: to age 92.
- Savings account type: tax-deferred, such as an IRA or 401(k).
- Taxes: estimated federal and North Carolina income taxes on withdrawals are included, plus early-withdrawal penalties before age 59½. Spending is after tax.
- Success rate: at least 75% of simulated market scenarios.
Everyone's situation is different. If you'd like a projection built around your own numbers, including Social Security, taxes, and the timing of your income, we'd be glad to help.
See how we work with clientsHow this estimate works, and its limits
Tap any heading to read the details.
Method and key assumptions
This estimate comes from a Monte Carlo analysis Calamita Wealth Management ran in MoneyGuidePro financial planning software. The analysis simulated many different sequences of market returns for a hypothetical 60% stock and 40% bond portfolio, using the assumptions listed above. For someone retiring at each age from 55 to 70 and spending $10,000 a month, rising with inflation, to age 92, plus estimated taxes on withdrawals, it found the lowest savings, in $25,000 steps, that lasted in at least 75% of the simulations. It repeated that at $6,000, $8,000, and $12,000 a month for retirement ages 55, 60, 65, and 70. For ages and spending in between, the calculator interpolates between those results.
Limitations
- The assumed return and volatility are estimates of future markets, not predictions. Actual returns will differ, possibly by a lot.
- Results between the ages and spending levels that were analyzed are interpolated, so they're approximations. The spending range is limited to the levels that were analyzed.
- The tax estimate is generic and assumes North Carolina residence and a tax-deferred account. Your own taxes depend on your account types, income sources, and where you live.
- The estimate doesn't reflect your health, other assets, or other income.
- A success rate of about 75% means roughly 1 in 4 simulated outcomes ran short before age 92.
Results are hypothetical
These results are hypothetical, don't reflect actual investment results, and aren't a guarantee of future results. The same inputs give the same answer today, but the estimate could change if the analysis is rerun or its assumptions are updated. The analysis considered one hypothetical portfolio, described only by its assumed return and volatility. It didn't analyze any specific fund, security, or product.
Investment selection
This calculator doesn't select, recommend, or favor any investment. It uses a single hypothetical 60/40 stock and bond mix because it's a widely used balanced allocation, not because it's right for you.
Other investments
Other investments and allocations not considered here may have characteristics similar or superior to those analyzed.
Your privacy
This calculator runs entirely in your browser. Nothing you enter is sent to us or stored.